| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Washington | 21-38 | 1494.5 | +7.2 | 1501.7 | 14.1% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Northern Colorado | 21-17 | 1501.7 | -16.7 | 1485.0 | 79.9% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | UTSA | 16-17 | 1484.5 | +16.7 | 1501.2 | 34.5% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Washington State | 3-20 | 1501.2 | -63.9 | 1437.3 | 54.4% |
| 7 | Oct 3 2025 | L | San Diego State | 24-45 | 1437.3 | -30.5 | 1406.8 | 29.9% |
| 8 | Oct 10 2025 | W | Fresno State | 49-21 | 1406.8 | +108.5 | 1515.3 | 25.9% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Hawai'i | 19-31 | 1515.3 | -39.6 | 1475.7 | 52.0% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Wyoming | 0-28 | 1475.7 | -41.7 | 1434.0 | 48.0% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | UNLV | 10-42 | 1443.4 | -56.7 | 1386.7 | 31.6% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | New Mexico | 17-20 | 1386.7 | +22.1 | 1408.8 | 26.4% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Boise State | 21-49 | 1408.8 | -7.5 | 1401.3 | 15.0% |
| 15 | Nov 28 2025 | L | Air Force | 21-42 | 1401.3 | -25.9 | 1375.4 | 38.2% |