| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | W | Wyoming | 35-13 | 1489.0 | +15.9 | 1504.9 | 65.8% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Southern Utah | 58-24 | 1504.9 | +28.1 | 1532.9 | 84.6% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | L | BYU | 23-41 | 1532.9 | +4.7 | 1537.6 | 7.5% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | L | UTSA | 45-59 | 1537.6 | -13.9 | 1523.7 | 28.7% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | L | Oregon State | 26-56 | 1523.7 | -59.3 | 1464.4 | 37.8% |